…Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the southern
High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days…
…Wet and cool conditions forecast across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic,
and Northeast this weekend…
…Well above average temperatures expected throughout the West and
north-central United States…
After a brief lull, active weather is anticipated to return to the
southern Plains tonight before spreading into the central/western Gulf
Coast and lower Mississippi Valley through early next week. A closed
upper-low over the Southwest and lingering frontal boundary extending from
the Gulf of Mexico to the southern Rockies is expected to be the trigger
for developing thunderstorms this evening. Isolated strong storms may
occur from southeast New Mexico to West Texas, with the potential for
large hail, strong wind gusts, and localized flash flooding. Unsettled
weather is also forecast to stretch into the central Rockies and central
High Plains. By Sunday, the aforementioned upper low is forecast to slide
eastward into the central Plains and shift thunderstorm chances eastward
throughout much of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. However, the
greatest threat with these storms are likely to be associated with flash
flooding, particularly throughout parts of eastern and north-central
Texas. Saturated ground conditions and additional heavy rain may lead to
numerous instances of flash flooding, with Waco, Texas and points eastward
to near the Louisiana border under a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
Excessive Rainfall on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are then forecast
to shift toward the central/western Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi
Valley, producing additional chances for flash flooding and severe
weather. Meanwhile, the northern end of the precipitation shield is
forecast to push ahead of a low pressure system swinging from the southern
Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a few inches of rain possible
into Kansas and Missouri by the end of the weekend.
Unsettled weather may also dampen weekend plans from the Great Lakes to
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as well the northern Plains. A low
pressure system tracking from the lower Great Lakes this evening to the
Mid-Atlantic coastline Sunday afternoon will spread showers across the
region, while also keeping temperatures on the cooler side. Further west,
a lingering frontal boundary may spawn scattered thunderstorms across the
northern Plains on Sunday.
A taste of summer is expected to continue for some folks as well above
average temperatures stretch from the West to the Midwest on Mother’s Day.
Highs in the 70s and 80s will be widespread (90s in the Southwest), with
above average temperatures also impacting southern Texas and Florida into
Monday.
Snell
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php