The most likely place: to the southeast of Indy. What kind of watch: TBD. From the Storm Prediction Center:
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern/western Ohio...northern Kentucky...central and southern Indiana...far southeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051859Z - 052130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes will spread northeastward and east-northeastward across the region -- especially after 1930Z and into the evening. Watch issuance will be likely for portions of the Discussion area, though there is uncertainty regarding Watch type (Severe Thunderstorm versus Tornado). DISCUSSION...Deep surface low pressure (998 mb) analyzed between St. Louis MO and Quincy IL will continue tracking east-northeastward into a region of 2-hour pressure falls around 1-4 mb (maximized from north-central IN into northern OH) during the next several hours. A wavy warm-frontal zone, branching east of the low, will continue developing northward into the region of ongoing pressure falls. Lower to middle 50s surface dewpoints will spread northward -- as far north as central IN to central/northern OH -- on the warm side of the front into the evening. Despite the limited boundary-layer moisture, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km -- sampled by the Wilmington OH and Lincoln IL 18Z soundings -- will support MLCAPE around 250-1000 J/kg. This should represent sufficient buoyancy for ongoing developing cells in the warm sector closest to the surface low in southern IL to intensify while tracking east-northeastward and northeastward during the next several hours. The long hodograph based on the Wilmington sounding suggests that ample convective ventilation and deep shear will exist for sustained supercell structures. Large hail -- possibly significantly severe -- will be likely. With effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 -- highest values expected near and just to the south of the surface low's track -- low-level mesocyclone development will be possible. Some tornado potential will exist (aided by pre-existing vertical vorticity near the surface low). However, the overall dearth of low-level moisture will minimize low-level buoyancy, which could temper the strength of low-level mesocyclones and tornado risk. Locally damaging wind gusts may also occur, especially in association with amalgamating cold pools.
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bobby arms says
Really dark in Muncie saucers are coming https://t.co/M9lXRYLyNa