From the Storm Prediction Center:
1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Areas affected…Central/Southern IN…far northern KY…western OH
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
SUMMARY…Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next hour or
so, with an attendant increase in the severe threat as well.
Damaging wind gusts and few tornadoes are possible and a watch will
likely be needed across portions of the area to cover the potential
threat.
DISCUSSION…Visible satellite imagery shows that cumulus clouds
have increased in the area of clearing across western IN over the
past half hour, suggesting both an increase in the forcing for
ascent as well as some destabilization. Wave structure to the new
clouds suggests the area remains stable but continued moisture
advection into the region should result in further destabilization
and an overall environment more supportive of surface-based storms.
Strong kinematic fields across the region have been sampled well by
area VAD profiles. Recent data from IND and ILX reported 0-6 km bulk
shear around 50 kt, which is more than sufficient for organized
updrafts. The somewhat limited instability and poor mid-level lapse
rates should limit hail production within these organized updrafts
but damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are still possible. The
tornado threat will be locally higher in those areas where the
surface winds remain backed, especially near the warm front. Given
this potential threat, a watch will likely be needed across portions
of the region this afternoon and evening.
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