Showers and storms may enter by southwest Indiana, including Terre Haute, by 6pm. They are possible in the Indy metro area by 8pm, and everywhere overnight and Sunday morning.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NRN AR...WRN TN...FAR SWRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF CONVECTION IS CROSSING THE MS RIVER NEAR AND N OF ST LOUIS...AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF 1006-MB SFC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER W-CNTRL MO. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LONG-LIVED MCV THAT EVOLVED FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND IS GENERALLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC CYCLONE. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF MCV/CONVECTIVE ARC INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS ONGOING OWING TO AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION AMIDST UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F SFC DEWPOINTS S/SW OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR STL SEWD TO MIDDLE TN. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS EWD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DMGG WIND RISK, POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WWD TO A CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING S OF THE CYCLONE TO N-CNTRL AR. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- I.E. FROM S-CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT FAR NRN AR -- AND THIS MAY BE A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR EVENTUAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MORE A MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE AND 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. STRONGER INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG -- WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. THE TORNADO RISK COULD INCREASE IF SUSTAINED CONVECTION WERE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO MORE BACKED SFC WINDS FOUND E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE SPATIALLY CONFINED OWING TO SFC WINDS EXHIBITING A TENDENCY OF VEERING WITHIN APPRECIABLE PROPORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE.
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