Lightning Chances In The Next Three Hours
About this page: These experimental products indicate probabilities of rainfall exceeding certain thresholds, a 'best estimate' peak rainfall amount, and probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. Rainfall forecasts are for the highest rainfall amounts within square regions 40 km (~20 miles) on a side. Lightning forecasts are for the probability of two or more strikes within the same regions. Probabilities are for 3-hour rainfall exceeding 0.1, 0.5, 1, and 2 inches (approximately 2.5, 12.5, 25, and 50 mm). Rainfall amount forecasts are for rainfall in the categories 0.1-0.49, 0.5-0.99, 1-1.99, and 2+ inches. The algorithm that generates the forecasts is slated for implementation within the National Weather Service's Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), which is used at field offices and national forecast centers. Input to the products includes a national radar composite, infrared satellite imagery, cloud-to-ground lightning strike observations, and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. All data are input to an extrapolative/statistical algorithm that analyzes the intensity, position, and short-term movement of rainfall and convective systems, and general atmospheric conditions (humidity, stability, and vertical motion) conducive to rain. The probabilistic output takes the form of color-filled contours on county-state map backgrounds. Categorical amount forecasts take the form of color-filled boxes. The box format accounts for the fact that the rainfall amount forecasts refer to the maximum rainfall values anywhere within the entire box, not the amount at any one place. Forecasts are updated at approximately 0:55 each hour, and cover the succeeding 3-hour period.